PBJ
was developed around the reality of today's volatile games. The
casinos are making the game tougher, so we have to employ
innovative approaches in order to survive those games.
Recognizing the strengths and drawbacks of all the systems I
have been involved with, combined with my own analysis and
playing experience, I have developed a cultivated blend of
advanced card play techniques and betting tactics, designed to
negotiate Blackjack in a low risk, yet exploitive manner. Our program is for
serious players who wish to play Blackjack as a long term
business. The success of the long term is achieved via short
term goals, which include table win locks, stop
losses, as well as, trip win locks and stop losses. We are
extremely concerned with protecting our bankroll and preventing
excessive "Give Back" to the casino. These concerns
among others are automatically protected by the PBJ betting
options, rules and table departure criteria. We have to
recognize the (6) main ingredients of successful blackjack play.
They include money management, table
selection, card play, betting , table departure and of course,
discipline.
Regarding
table selection ... We are trained to appraise blackjack
table conditions as they exist. Each table must present an
investment opportunity from our advanced point of view. We are
trained and prepared to enter games that exhibit player
favorable conditions, where it is apparent that "basic
strategy" is responsible for player winning activity. By
the same token, we are also prepared to enter tables that lack
"basic strategy" traits, but appear to be playable
from an advanced angle of attack.
The casinos have
drastically tampered with card flow randomness, which
traditional "basic strategy" is reliant upon. Ever
wonder why the casinos sell "basic strategy" books in
the casino gift shops and why they offer "basic
strategy" lessons on the floor of the casino? Are they
training us to beat them, or are they training us to beat
ourselves? I think you know the answer. In order to negotiate
today's conditions, which are stacked against us, we have to
know when to play straight "basic strategy" and when
to deviate from "basic strategy," as a means to
increase our hands won percentage and to help defuse one of the
casino's built - in advantages. However, we must recognize that
even with advanced card play capabilities, games can be so
dealer strong that even our good card sense can be overcome by
the casino, despite the fact that we know why we are losing.
Fortunately, I have built in safe guards which essentially
protect us from over staying enticing games where we are calling
the cards, but losing anyway.
(PBJ) is a very
comprehensive document written in an educational -instructional
type format. It is designed to rehash the basics and graduate
the student to an Expert Player section.
PART
ONE involves segments on educating the student in the
aspects of the casino industry - basic Blackjack information -
and segments which depict stages leading up to the (PBJ) method,
derived from traditional fundamentals that cannot be over
looked.
PART
TWO involves segments regarding advanced information and
graduates the student into those stages.
PART
THREE provides the student with information and tactics
which arm the player with more strength and flexibility than
ever before. Money management, in the form of low risk, yet
exploitive betting to address game conditions as they exist and
change. Part three also contains The ULTRA-CONSERVATIVE"
version of betting and the "BETTING GUIDES REFERENCE
SECTIONS."
PART
FOUR offers power tactics including Spot Betting, Head On
Play, Team Play, and a Card Counting Enhancement.
PART
FIVE is the EXPERT PLAYER SECTION which expands the
player's horizons by introducing semi aggressive betting. The
expert section still remains within a low risk area, due to all
the betting angles and options. That portion of the manual also
contains an extensive upgraded betting guides reference section.
PART
SIX details casino documentation, trip plans, follow - up
services and home practice.
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PBJ betting tactics were designed around game volatility and
those adverse radical changes that occur. Betting is based on
the premise that "nothing good lasts forever."
Therefore, all betting tactics and options anticipate game
break-downs. Never-the-less, the betting tactics were also
designed to address game type conditions as they exist and
change. Our advantage is created due to the fact that we can not
only exploit games where we tend to be winning more hands than
the dealer, but we can even exploit games where we are
alternating wins and losses with the dealer. PBJ utilizes
(2) main betting themes. Both involve mathematical common sense
and logic. These betting methods address the streaking game and
the choppy game. The ultra conservative section of the manual
illustrates the "up as you win" scheme, utilizing mode
levels of betting. This mild up as you win involves safeguard
modes which are staggered in between the bet increments, as a
means to assure table lock wins, upon game breakdowns and to
minimize losses upon table departures. The up as you win method
contained in the expert section is slightly more aggressive than
the ultra conservative section, yet still remains within a low
risk level. There are no safeguard modes involved with the
expert method. It's a straight up as you win and pull type
betting scheme. Once the player graduates to the expert section
it is incumbent of the player to get a little more aggressive,
in an effort to get more money out faster during player
favorable sections of the shoe.
PBJ uses a safe
progression designed to address the common "choppy"
back and forth type games. Recognize that our rules of table
departure will automatically limit losses in a bad game , where
no advantage is working and prevent excessive "give
back" in good games that break-down.
We train the player to
recognize when to switch from one betting tactic to the other in
order to swing with changing conditions that occur throughout
the shoe. In addition to our (2) primary betting schemes, we
have clever betting tactics involving the 1st base
position and an optional card counting enhancement which can be
incorporated into the mainstream of PBJ. All PBJ betting
is designed to minimize losses in bad games and safeguard table
wins in good games, by win locking and preventing excessive
"give back." The manual details betting guides for
different size bankrolls and base betting units. This becomes
very significant when we incorporate the "table
minimum spread factor" and "chisel
ploy" tactics into our low risk attack.
As mentioned earlier,
our table departure criteria is designed to minimize losses and
assure table wins, by preventing excessive "give
back." We are trained to recognize when our entry
into a game ruins the game, when we fall into a poor player zone
and when a good game has come to an abrupt end. Remember, we are
not there to wage a war against a dealer; we are there to win
more money than we started with. If a dealer is strong we have
to move on. That's one of the realities of casino blackjack. We
can leave the table, because we have a choice. The dealer can't!
PBJ teaches casino
insight so that the player is aware of what he is up against. We
cover variables created by the casino and enlighten the player
as to how to recognize those variables and deal with them. PBJ
also teaches the player to recognize variables which are created
by other blackjack players as well. We learn how to use other
players to our advantage and when to recognize that other
players become a hindrance to our intentions. PBJ also touches
upon casino marketing, gimmicks and proper utilization of
"comps."
Now,
Let's talk about the few good tables in casino.
For starters, we have
to recognize that a good table exists because basic strategy is
working in that particular game for those particular players.
Those type games are characterized by the following
characteristics ... Most of the players
are winning, the dealer is doing her share of breaking , the
players are receiving good double down cards and the game is
stabilized. We can still find those types of game, but we
have to seek them out. From a PBJ perspective, when those type
games are located, we enter them and lean towards "basic
strategy" card play. However, provided that we can get into
the game, one of three things will occur ... We will either
disrupt a fragile player favorable bias, we will not disrupt the
game or we may fall into a poor player zone. Having a PBJ
background, many times we will be able to adjust to a game
change, via our advanced card play capabilities and betting
tactics.
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So, how
do we handle Basic Strategy?
We've included a
"Fundamental Strategy" chart in the manual for several
reasons. First of all, the chart is just slightly more
conservative than traditional "Basic Strategy" charts.
The chart is needed so that the novice player, as well as the
experienced player, can use it as a fundamental guideline to
making flexible card play decisions. I consider
"Fundamental Strategy" as a transitional mode of card
play , if you will. In other words, we employ fundamental
strategy as a safe strategy, until we deem the game a
"basic strategy" game. We are also trained in how to
fluctuate from traditional standards of card play to flexible
approaches as we see fit in our round to round analysis.
PBJ recognizes team
play as playing blackjack at it's highest level. We have tactics
designed for partner play and elaborate tactics which can be
utilized by larger teams. We are also continuing research on
these two very powerful concepts and will be doing seminars
solely on team play.
Concerning Head On
Play, PBJ details the advantages and the perils of taking on a
dealer "head on." We are trained to recognize head on
opportunities, create opportunities and when to back off. We can
win a lot of money quick and we can lose a lot of money quick
during head on play. So, we have to have an idea of why a dealer
is standing alone at a table. Especially, a low stakes table,
when the casino is crowded.
Let's move on with a
discussion on the problems associated with contemporary multiple
deck blackjack conditions . . . First, the problem with
"BASIC STRATEGY" ... Today's knowledgeable player must
recognize that basic strategy was the first mathematical system
devised for the game of blackjack. However, basic strategy was
developed years ago by mathematicians and it was developed with
a reliance upon card flow randomness. What makes matters worse
is that basic strategy was also devised for only single deck
play.
As you know, the good
card counters put a dent in the industry years ago, so the
casinos had to take action against their attackers. They took
measures to subvert the mathematics of basic strategy and
proficient card counting techniques and betting. As a result,
the casinos turned to the multiple deck game and hired
consultants to make their games harder to beat. Now for the
problem ... How many times were you in a
game when either you or someone at the table made a remark like
"Where are the (10's) and doesn't this dealer ever break?
What you were experiencing at that time was the result of non
random card flows and their adverse impact on straight basic
strategy card play. Therefore, if card flow patterns are non
random, then the cards must be running in like card clumps. In
other words, low cards are traveling with low cards and high
cards are traveling with high cards more than they randomly
should. Shoes that are characterized by an abundance of these
card clump runs will kill the straight basic strategy player. It
is so clear. All you have to do is use your eyes. The evidence
will speak for itself. Consider it the "PAINT ON THE
TABLE".
Keep in mind that low
cards are dealer favorable and high cards are player favorable.
Also, keep in mind that the dealer can't break when low cards
are running, except for sometimes a 6. This is one of the
reasons why dealer strategy always seems to favor the dealer.
The only real advantage that the dealer has is that the
dealer hits last and if the player breaks ahead of the dealer,
the house wins. So, if the cards are running in clear
recognizable clumps, then they become predictable to the point
that ,you the player, can use that information to judge the
dealer's strength, by making a logical prediction on the
dealer's down card. You can also use this card flow information
to make predictions on your hit cards. And that becomes very
significant in increasing your hands won percentage and for good
quality double down plays. What I'm leading to here is the
employment of advanced card play, termed "flexible
strategy".
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"THE
CARD MANUFACTURING PROCESS"...
I'll break down the
process. It starts with the order in which new cards are
packaged. When a dealer opens a table or new cards are brought
in to a table, the dealer opens the boxes and spreads the new
cards out and employs a WASH which is nothing more than a
circular motioned mixing of the cards. Actually the cards don't
get mixed up much at all. After the wash, the dealer will
shuffle the cards and begin to deal. Now, for purpose of
illustration, visualize (7) players at the table. And all or
most of those players will be straight basic strategy players.
This is where basic strategy and the manner in which the dealer
picks up the players' cards becomes an element involved in the
card clump manufacturing process. The players hit their stiffs
and get a high card and break. The dealer then picks up the
player's cards, in break card clump segments and places them in
the discard holder.
To make matters worse,
when several players and the dealer all have two card (20)
pushes, which are nothing more than wasted tens, all those tens
are scooped up by the dealer and placed together in the discard
holder in a clump of high cards. This process keeps perpetuating
itself from shoe to shoe and the end result is overly clumped
shoes. The insufficient shuffling techniques inhibit card
movement, therefore, randomness is tampered with. And we need
randomness for successful basic strategy card play. That is why
full tables seldom create favorable player conditions. The
more decks used, the fuller the table, straight basic strategy
card play and the insufficient shuffling techniques, all stack
the cards against you the player. So,
how do we overcome the problem or should I say how do we, use
the casino advantage against them? The answer is flexible
strategy card play; not strict basic strategy card play.
In effect, if you can take an advantage away from the casino,
then you are creating an advantage for yourself. That doesn't
mean that you should become cocky and develop an infallible
attitude.
The manual teaches you
to respect situations where your advantage is not working,
especially, when a dealer is just too strong. However, our table
departure criteria protects us from over staying poor games. Now
please don't get me wrong. Just because we may have to deviate
from basic strategy on many occasions doesn't mean that we will
completely disregard basic strategy.
How many times have you
seen this situation ... The
dealer shows the low up card and the players double and stand on
their stiffs and ultimately the dealer ends up pulling a 5 card
21 and whacks everyone at the table. Keep in
mind that the casinos allow the double down and split options
for a reason. This is a very frustrating situation for the
players. We show the player when to make QUALITY double - downs
and when not to double. Advanced card play knowledge arms the
player with skills that can negotiate the less desirable tables
where basic strategy appears to be fruitless.
Anyone
who has been playing for awhile recognizes that the shoe game
seems far more difficult over the last several years. Dealers
appear to win more than their fair share of the hands with
uncanny luck. Actually, luck has nothing to do with it. The game
has changed radically. Beating it requires a radically changed
playing method that corresponds to, and addresses, those game
changes. The basis of the casino's new Blackjack game is
non-random cards. One of the successes of our method is
capitalizing on non-random cards. We fight fire with fire. We
fight Blackjack with PRECISION BLACKJACK.
IF BOTH
DEALERS AND PLAYERS BREAK LESS, THE CHANCE THAT THEY WILL BOTH
BREAK ON THE SAME HAND IS GREATLY REDUCED. That's the secret of
PRECISION BLACKJACK. It's not an opinion. It is a pure and
simple mathematical fact. This fact greatly reduces the house
odds and gives the edge to the player, IF HE KNOWS HOW TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF IT. IS BASIC STRATEGY WRONG ? OH MY GOD HOW COULD
ALL THOSE BOOKS BE WRONG??? ARE THE CASINOS BROKE? WHY DO THEY
OFFER FREE BASIC STRATEGY LESSONS IN THE CASINOS? ARE THEY
TRAINING YOU TO BEAT THEM? OR ARE THEY TRAINING YOU TO BEAT
YOURSELF ??? That is precisely what I am saying. I do not ask
you to take my word for this. Solid proof is in the manual.
WHY
DO MOST PLAYERS LOSE? Let's look at
how the game was designed. The closest to 21 wins. Since that is
true for both dealer and player, the design was for both to win
half the hands. That makes it even. But, we had to have a house
advantage so the casino could make a living. We said, O.K., when
you both break, the dealer wins. For the moment, let's forget
all of the other rules, since they all favor the player.
By
design, we should win half of the hands and the casino's only
advantage should be the "break-push" rule. Now, I want
you to think about the last game you lost. Did you lose because
of the break-push rule? Think about it. No. You lost because the
dealer won more hands than you, didn't she? The break-push rule
didn't have much to do with it, did it? Now think about this:
How could you lose more than half the hands when the object for
you is exactly the same as it is for the dealer? And, you are
allowed to play your cards any way you please while the dealer
must play her cards one way and one way only. THINK about it How
could you lose? It's not the rules that beat you, is it? It's
not the game that beat you, is it? It isn't luck, is it?
Believing in luck is like believing in leprechauns. There is
only one thing left, isn't there? YOU LOST BECAUSE YOU DIDN'T
ALTER YOUR CARD PLAY DURING AREAS WHERE BASIC STRATEGY CARD PLAY
FAILED. Sorry to be so blunt, but it takes a little force
to overcome the mind set you have been subjected to.
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WHY
IS PRECISION BLACKJACK - BETTER?
First, let's look at just
three of the reasons:
1)
PRECISION BLACKJACK is better because it addresses the real
situation at hand, not some fantasy game that exists only in
Blackjack books, computer programs and in the minds of some
"experts"
2)
PRECISION BLACKJACK uses plain common sense. It's the thinking
man's approach to Blackjack. Once you have had some training and
practice, you will find that your mind is far more agile and
reliable than some rigid unthinking chart. Think about
this. The entire OLD BLACKJACK approach can be reduced to a
single piece of paper. If that was all it took, there would be
no Blackjack.
3) The
casinos handed us a powerful edge on a silver platter;
non-random cards. How can that help us? Because high cards
follow high cards and low cards follow low cards more than they
randomly should. Therefore, whenever we bet that they won't
repeat, it is a bad bet. So, we bet that they will repeat. We
are right far more often than we are wrong. How's that for
poetic justice.
HOW
DOES PRECISION BLACKJACK WORK? The
approach can be divided into two parts: CARD PLAY and BETTING.
Let's take them one at a time. CARD PLAY: Let's forget about
soft hands , double downs, and splits for the moment. Once we
have done this, card play decisions can be reduced to hands of
12 through 16 only. This is because there is nothing to be
decided for a hand less than 12; we automatically hit. Likewise,
there is nothing to be decided for hands greater than 16; we
stand. PBJ utilizes the basic strategy chart to make the 12 to
16 card play decisions.
The
chart looks at only one piece of information to make this all
important decision - the dealer's up card. Once they assume that
the cards are random, which they aren't, the up card is all that
they have to go on. Recognize that the up card alone is nearly
useless for accurately assessing the dealer's hand. This is
because, with random cards, the chance that the dealer's hole
card is high is exactly the same as the chance that it is low.
Never-the-less, basic strategy assumes that the dealer has a ten
in the hole. This means that they are right only 30.8 % of the
time, or once in 3.25 hands, because that is the ratio of tens
in a deck of cards. We will learn later that they are actually
right far less than that. When we take the time to really
contemplate it, we can't help but come to the conclusion that
basic strategy is too strict to form the basis of a reliable
winning approach to effective card play. Statistics verify this
conclusion. While basic strategy may fare well in random, single
deck games, it only wins about 40-42% of the hands in the modern
shoe game. This is totally inadequate for winning play. By
contrast, we appreciates the fact that the cards are not random
and assess separate pieces of information to make the 12 - 16
card play decision far more accurately.
We
achieve a hands won ratio in the 52-58% range, depending on the
difficulty of the game and the experience of the player. These
figures have been verified by many players over many thousands
of hands. We invite you to verify them yourself by your own play
records, if you so desire. PRECISION BLACKJACK also looks at the
dealer's up card, but recognizes it's impotence without
additional information. Through a process called card reading,
afforded by the non-random condition of the cards, PRECISION
BLACKJACK achieves a highly accurate perception of the dealer's
hole card as well as the player's and dealer's hit cards.
PRECISION BLACKJACK then combines these four pieces of evidence
with the tens ratio of the hand being played as well as the
historical dealer break ratio in the game being played. These
sources of information are assessed to make a highly enlightened
play decision. The same information is then used, very
effectively, to identify high percentage double down, split, and
insurance opportunities.
BETTING:
PBJ utilizes card counting for the
betting side of their game. We contend that card counting is not
only beyond the ability of most players, it is worse than
useless in today's shoe game because it directs the player to
place high bets on more dealer favorable hands than player
favorable hands. PRECISION BLACKJACK utilizes the far more
effective tens ratio monitoring method, which tells the player
if the next round is favorable or not. It also tells the player
what game type he is in and the most effective betting strategy
for that game type.
Is
today's game winnable? Look the
dealer wins more than half the hands by simply hitting to 17.
(We call that "dealer strategy"). We can play our
cards any way we want! If the dealer can win by playing mindless
dealer strategy, think about what we can do by using our
intelligence to play optimum strategy! Think about what we can
do by playing the edge that the casinos unwittingly gave us. And
that's not the half of it. Add to that the best table selection
strategy, the best insurance strategy, the best double down
strategy, the best money and time management strategies and the
most enlightened betting strategy the game has ever seen. Add
hit and hole card anticipation. And there is more. So, is
today's game winnable? YOU BET IT IS!
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'If the
cards were random, all games would be the same.'
DOES
CLUMPING EXIST? Enlightened players
in real casinos already know the answer, however, many calls and
letters still pose this question. Not surprising. Most casino
personnel and many BJ experts- still deny the existence of
non-random cards. This is like denying the existence of blue
Fords. For the purpose of instruction, clumping and non-random
are the same thing. Clumping merely describes the way in which
the cards are non-random. Clumping means that low cards follow
low cards and high cards follow high cards more often than
random math allows. Since the card play and betting strategies
of PRECISION BLACKJACK are largely based on clumping, let's put
this question to bed once and for all. How familiar is this? You
get dealt a two card 20 only to watch all the other players also
get dealt a 20, including the dealer. Everyone pushes. We call
this phenomenon a 'solid ten push' They are all too familiar to
real players, aren't they? They occur with regularity anywhere
the 4, 6, or 8 deck shoe game is dealt. Anyone, expert or
not, who denies their existence, does not play in real casinos.
In the Atlantic City summer games, they are so common that no
one bothers to question them anymore. Sometimes they occur more
than once in the same shoe! I once counted 24 tens in a row in a
4 deck game in the high stakes room at the Claridge. The random
odds against this occurrence, with only 4 decks, are 69.5
trillion to 1. I am sure you have all had similar experiences.
Of course, if you raise an eyebrow at the pit boss you will get:
'Oh well, you can expect that with random cards.'
MATHEMATICAL
PROOF: Let's walk through the math together and then
you tell me if clumping exists or not. ...
...
MORE
TELLTALE SIGNS OF CLUMPING: Most
letters and email tell me that is completely credible because
they've seen it all before. Maybe you have noticed some of these
phenomenon DEALER TWENTY ONES You don't suppose this has
anything to do with low card clumps, do you? Maybe the dealers
are just getting luckier.
GAME
CHARACTERISTICS: Now you have to
admit that there are good games and there are bad games. Even a
beginner soon realizes this sometime during his first day in a
casino. All table selection strategies are based on the fact of
game characteristics. Think about it! If all games were random,
there would be no game characteristics. That's what random
means: without patterns; without characteristics. If the cards
were random, all games would be the same.
SHUFFLE
TACTICS: Why do casinos change
their shuffle? Isn't a random shuffle a random shuffle? If the
cards are random, why wouldn't all casinos use the same shuffle
and never change it? You don't suppose they are trying to
influence the game, do you? They would never try to control the
amount of clumping, would they? How could they, if the cards are
random? LOW CARD CLUMPS: Recognize that clumping the high cards
effectively clumps the low cards. Where else could they be?
Remember those rounds with no tens? Or maybe two or three or
more rounds in a row? 'Oh well, you can expect that with random
cards.
DEALER
BREAK SUBVERSION: The more the cards are clumped, the
less the dealer breaks. ...
STAND
HAND SUBVERSION: ...
WHY
NO RIGID STRATEGY WORKS IN THE SHOE GAME: ...
BASIC
GAME COMPREHENSION: AND YOU THOUGHT YOU KNEW THE RULES.
Most players believe they already have sufficient basic game
comprehension and may overlook this important point. In reality,
few players, including pro PRECISION BLACKJACK players and BS
card counters, actually possess a thorough grasp of basic game
comprehension This shortcoming will affect the quality of their
play and their ability to fully grasp this! I want to list some
game fine points to give you a world class perspective on basic
game comprehension. Each of you will see some new twists in our
interpretation of the rules.
WHAT
THE RULES TEACH US.
1 All rules favor
the player but one - when you both break you lose.
2 Dealer play is
totally mindless - only the player is allowed to think.
3 Players can
lose a hand 3 ways but dealers can only lose 2 ways.
PLAYERS
- The player loses whenever he:
1. Stands short when
the dealer makes
2. Makes a hand less
than the dealer's
3. Breaks
1. Makes a hand less
than the player's
2. Breaks when the
player doesn't
4. Standing short is
betting the dealer will break - nothing more.
5. Hitting a
stiff is betting the dealer won't break - nothing more.
6. Whenever you stand
short you lose - unless the dealer breaks.
7. Dealer breaking
varies widely from an average of about 1 in 5.
8. The dealer break
frequency tends to remain constant in a game.
9. It is foolish to
stand short more often than the dealer is breaking.
10. The dealer cannot
break on low cards of 1 through 5. 1
11. The dealer cannot
break with all high cards.
12. Forecasting dealer
breaks offers our biggest gain potential.
13. Doubling is betting
a single hit card will beat the dealer.
14. Insurance is
betting the hole card is a 10 - nothing more.
15. The hole card is
low just as often as it is high.
16. To break even on
surrender we must be right 75%.
17. Splitting is merely
deciding what hand we prefer to start with.
18. A dealer strategy
player is only giving the house 2% odds.
19. You decide when and
where to play, when to stop, how much to bet, when to double,
split, insure, or surrender and how much to tip.
20. The dealer makes no
decisions.
21. Betting is the art
of predicting which hands we are most likely to win.
22. Predicting winning
hands is the art of forecasting dealer breaks.
23. Forecasting dealer
breaks is the art of Precision Blackjack.
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THE
RISE AND FALL OF BASIC STRATEGY AND CARD COUNTING
Basic Strategy was the
first mathematical system developed for Blackjack. However, it
is almost 40 years old and was based on the premise of a SINGLE
deck of cards and a RANDOM shuffle. Also, card counting, almost
35 years old, used these premises as well as assuming that the
game would be dealt to the BOTTOM of the deck. Both of these
systems are static, or 100% mechanical, with NO FLEXIBILITY
WHATSOEVER.
In 1982, Atlantic City
casinos lost a very important court case in which they were no
longer allowed to bar skilled Blackjack players. So the casinos
hired consultants to figure out how to subvert the game to
defeat the Basic Strategy players and card counters. Because
these two systems are static, it didn't take the consultants
long to find a way to beat them. The first thing casinos did was
add multiple decks to the game. This created wider swings in the
count due to increased card clumping as a result of a non-random
shuffle. How many big bets have you lost in high counts? The
second thing they did was to move up the cut card to reduce the
counters' advantage. Sure, there might be an excess of tens
left, but the counter has no way of knowing if they are behind
the cut card or not. Third, they began to pick up the cards and
put them into the discard tray immediately after a player would
break rather than leave them on the table until the end of the
round. This created what we call "Break-Card
Clumping." In general, the cards left on the table would be
two-card twenties or nineteen's, thus creating "high-card
clumps." The reverse would automatically happen as well.
Usually the breaking hands would contain a strong majority of
low cards, which would be stacked in the discard tray right on
top of each other. Then the twenties and nineteen's left would
be put on top of the breaking hands, creating a low-card clump
followed by a high card clump. At this point, you may agree with
everything we've said, but your next question is, "Wouldn't
the shuffle break up these clumps?" NO!!! Read on.
NON-RANDOM
SHUFFLES
A Harvard Mathematician
did a study a few years ago on shuffling and concluded that it
takes seven shuffles to approach randomness with a single deck
of cards. So if your casino is using eight decks, the cards
would have to be shuffled 7x7x7x7x7x7x7x7 times to achieve this.
That is a very big number! It would take years to shuffle at
this rate. The point is that the cards are NOT randomized as
believed by most people. All this led to the most damaging
change - the reduction of the dealer break ratio, which
according to the old math was 28%, or 1 out of 3.5 hands. When
was the last time YOU saw the dealer break like this on average?
Anyone who plays the multi-deck game on a regular basis KNOWS
this to be TOTALLY UNREALISTIC! 15 - 20% is much more like it.
Basic Strategy relies on this 28% ratio exclusively to make
everything work. When this ratio breaks down, Basic Strategy
breaks down with it. How does this happen???
Because of the Low and
High - card Clumping! First, with low cards clumping together,
it is impossible for the dealer to break. The dealer must hit to
seventeen and if low cards are coming out, guess what? This is
where you see those all - too- common five, six, and seven card
nineteen's, twenties, and twenty ones that the dealer seems to
miraculously mass - produce to beat you again and again. Since
Basic Strategy tells you to stand with your stiff hand against
an up card of 2-6, you are losing far too many of these hands
when low cards are running. If the dealer can't break here,
neither can you. The cards don't know who is dealing! Second, in
high-card clumps the dealer usually ends up with those
all-too-common two card twenties. How many times have you
received one of these hands with the dealer's Ten up staring you
in the face and you got a sick feeling in your stomach because
you just KNEW the hole card was a Ten? This is NOT by accident.
Remember, high cards favor the player so what the casinos have
done is actually removed player favorable cards with NO LOSS to
them at all, since a push costs them nothing. This is legalized
cheating-just like short decking in the old days, except
disguising it!
Now that you are aware
of the dirty little tricks the casinos play, what is the answer?
By tampering with the natural odds of the game, the casinos have
left themselves vulnerable to Flexible Card Play tactics!!! If
the cards are not random, they must be PREDICTABLE to a certain
extent. Imagine being able to predict the dealer's hole card and
the hit cards with amazing accuracy! To make matters worse, many
double and spilt plays occur in the midst of low - card clumps
so the player is putting out more money at the worst possible
time. Think about it - how many times do you double when you see
low cards all over the table and you KNOW the next card is low?
But, you do it anyway because the $9.95 book you bought said so,
and you lose again, and again , and again ...
Here is where Basic
Strategy fails - because players never alter their play sooner
or
later the odds of the game
will catch up to them. Remember, the odds favor the house.
All the Basic Strategy
player can hope for is a "hot run" to bet up into
before the house edge catches up with them. Of course we know
how often this happens - very rarely. STOP!!! It is time to
change your thinking and start playing on a higher level.
I hope you have gained
some insight from our seminar. Feel free to call or drop an
email if you have any questions or just want to talk Blackjack.
Regards,
Ron DiBenedetto
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